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2014 Real Estate Market Outlook

 

 

 

 2014 Real Estate Outlook and Updates

 

 

2013 witnessed one of the most robust real estate recoveries in history.  Home prices dramatically increased, fewer homeowners were underwater, and builder confidence was finally on the upswing. It appears as though 2014 could be another good year for housing.  In general, we see interest rates rising, inventory growing, and a fewer number of homeowners struggling to make payments.  Also, home prices could increase in the first half of 2014 as a result of pent up demand due to a lack of inventory at the end of 2013.

We have made some predictions for the real estate market for the coming year.

 

 

1. Mortgage rates may rise

 Many predict rates will hit 5% by the end of 2014–significantly up from the previous 3% levels.  However, this is still well within normal levels. New Fed Reserve chief Janet Yellen is expected to continue Ben Bernanke’s policy of keeping mortgage rates low by buying blocks of mortgage-backed securities, but the Fed’s bond-buying taper could push rates higher. “While this will make homes more expensive to finance – the monthly payment on a $200,000 loan will rise by roughly $160 – it’s important to remember that mortgage rates in the 5 percent range are still very low,” says Erin Lantz, Zillow’s director of mortgages. Really. “Prior to the Federal Reserve’s 2008 decision to buy $85 billion in debt per month, the 36-year average was 9.2%, and never below 5.8%,” notes Glen Kelman, CEO of Redfin.

 

 

 

 

2. Loans will become easier to obtain

Banks will continue loosening lending standards as we have seen in the last half of 2013.  Lenders have been introducing past products such as stated income loans.  “The silver lining to rising interest rates is that getting a loan will be easier,” says Lantz. “Rising rates means lenders’ refinance business will dwindle, forcing them to compete for buyers by potentially loosening their lending standards.”

 

 

 

3. Home supply should increase

 A severe lack of inventory drove rapid price increases at the beginning of 2013, but look for that to change in 2014. We noticed that the homes available for purchase shortage began to soften in February. New construction and rising prices should bring more homes, both new and old, on to the market in 2014, helping inventory return to traditional levels.

 

 

 

4. Home prices could rise 2- 3%

Although some are predicting that home prices will rise between 3% and 5% in 2014, we believe that growth will be more tempered.  The rise in inventory should keep home prices in check as there will be less frenzied demand and fewer multiple offer situations.  For comparison’s sake, 2013 saw jumps of 5% nationally, with increases of more than 20% in some hot spots.   According Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries, “these gains, while beneficial in many ways, were also unsustainable and well above historic norms for healthy, balanced markets,” .  “This year, home value gains will slow down significantly because of higher mortgage rates, more expensive home prices, and more supply created by fewer underwater homeowners and more new construction.”

 

5. Fewer distressed homeowners

The significant rise in home values helped 2.5 million homeowners with underwater mortgages regain positive equity status during the second quarter of 2013, according to Realtor.org. By Q3, a CoreLogic report found that about 6.4 million homes were still in negative equity at the end of Q3. Watch for that number to shrink in 2014.

 

 

6. Home ownership rates will decline

In 2014, Zillow predicts, home ownership rates will fall below 65 percent for the first time since 1995. “The housing bubble was fueled by easy lending standards and irrational expectations of home value appreciation, but it put a historically high number of American households – seven out of ten – in a home, if only temporarily,” says Humphries. “That home ownership level proved unsustainable and during the housing recession and recovery the home ownership rate has floated back down to a more normal level, and we expect it to break 65% for the first time since the mid-1990s.” Watch also for adult children to move out of their parents’ homes, starting their own households and further decreasing the overall home ownership rate.

 

7. Americans will downsize

Rising prices, a reversal of underwater mortgages, and easier credit will free Americans up to move. But next time they’ll choose smaller homes in more affordable locations. Redfin is predicting that new lending regulations–which make it harder to borrow more–will send Americans to less expensive hubs like Portland, Denver, Austin, Richmond, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, and Raleigh.

 

 

 

8. Foreclosures will significantly slow

The red hot foreclosure market has slowed, with September 2013 the 36th straight month of year-over-year decreases in foreclosure activity, nearly 33% down from the end of 2012. The declines should continue with the overall housing recovery.

 

 

 

9. A decline in affordability

Despite the slower pace of price increases, home affordability will decline as mortgage rates rise. The real culprit is income levels, which aren’t keeping pace with the increases in housing costs. In 2013, the National Association of Realtors’ Home Affordability Index dropped to a five-year low. Experts predict the trend will continue in 2014.

 

 

 

10. An easier home buying experience

Amid the housing crisis, investors, not owner occupiers, bought as many as one out of every five homes in America, according to Redfin. The perfect storm of increased inventory, higher prices, and fewer foreclosures means that investors are stepping out of the buying market, giving way for regular single family buyers. This, coupled with easing credit requirements, and the housing buy market begins to look more normal. “All in all, more inventory, less competition from investors, and more mortgage credit should all make the buying process less frenzied than in 2013,” says Trulia.

 

 

 

 

For more information about Palos Verdes Real Estate and South Bay or buying and selling a home on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, visit my website at http://pvbrokers.net . We provide specialized attention for all your real estate needs in the South Bay Los Angeles and the Palos Verdes Peninsula. We would love to hear your comments or suggestions.


 

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PV Brokers provides residential real estate services in the Los Angeles County South Bay communities of Palos Verdes Estates, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills Estates, Rolling Hills, Redondo Beach, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Torrance and San Pedro. As a boutique Realty, our Palos Verdes Real Estate agents and palos verdes brokers are committed to giving our clients specialized service and attention. For more information on Palos Verdes real estate, palos verdes homes for sale, palos verdes foreclosures, homes for sale in Palos Verdes, palos verdes market information in addition to quality information on homes for sale, visit www.pvbrokers.net .

                                  

      

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Palos Verdes Real Estate June Update | PV Brokers

 

Is Federal Stimulus Good for Housing?

Recently, the Federal Reserve hinted at winding down its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program. The reasoning is to avoid trampling the green shoots of the country’s fragile housing market.

However, is the economy ready for an end to the stimulus?

So, what is the thinking behind the Federal Reserve's plan to wind down its economic stimulus program, and how is the issue likely to be tackled by chairman Ben Bernanke's successor?

Officials at the Federal Reserve said last week that they plan to reduce the amount of bonds they buy, basing their purchases on their confidence about jobs and inflation. Although no date has been given, officials are reportedly working on clarifying the strategy so financial markets don’t have an overreaction to any moves. The Fed’s stimulus pushed mortgage rates to record lows, experts say, which has helped fuel the housing market recovery. “The housing market is no different from the bond market and equity market,” says Mark Grant, managing director at Southwest Securities in Dallas. “It’s artificially inflated.”

Unfortunately, no matter how the Federal Reserve reduces its bond-buying program, it is certainly bound to have an impact on housing, analysts say. “If it just pulls out, it will be a catastrophe,” Grant says. Current policy favors borrowers, he says, while penalizing those who save and invest.

A gradual withdrawal of Federal Reserve funds will also throw a spanner in the current refinancing boom, others say. Historically low mortgage rates — 3.5% for a 30-year fixed rate versus 6.1% in 2008 before the Fed began buying back mortgage-backed securities — have led to a strong increase in refinancing in recent years with some homeowners refinancing more than once to lock in lower monthly mortgage repayments. “If the Fed cuts back on actions that have kept mortgage rates low, the main effect of higher rates would be a drop in refinancing activity,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at real estate listing site Trulia.

To be sure, some say an early housing recovery will weather a phasing out of QE3, the Fed’s economic stimulus also known as quantitative easing. The housing affordability index is still near record highs of 200, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is, the average household has 200% of the qualifying income needed to purchase the median-priced home, financed with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. “Even if mortgages rates rose gradually back up to 5% to 6% over the next five years, they would still be lower than any time between 1970 and 2000,” says Mark J. Perry, a professor of finance and business economics at the University of Michigan-Flint. “When the Fed does start allowing rates to rise, it would be so gradual that people would adjust to the new environment.”

Larger homes will be the most likely to feel the impact of higher rates as more would-be home buyers feel less confident about moving up the property ladder. “Higher rates would mean that homebuyers would not be able to afford as expensive homes,” Kolko says. That’s bad news for those who are waiting to sell, he says, “as it would probably cause home prices to rise more slowly than they have been.” On the upside, Kolko says it will help prevent another bubble. Prices of existing homes soared 10.5% in March year-over-year, according to the latest figures from CoreLogic, a mortgage-data firm, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006.

In short, there is a consequence to all federal government actions that interrupt the normal course of market activity. The current injection of liquidity, while having a short term positive effect, may result in some serious long-term issues.

 

bart cleveland | (310) 872-077

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bart cleveland

bart cleveland

(310) 872-0778

Posted: August 17, 2

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PV Brokers provides residential real estate services in the Los Angeles County South Bay communities of Palos Verdes Estates, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills Estates, Rolling Hills, Redondo Beach, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Torrance and San Pedro. As a boutique Realty, our Palos Verdes Real Estate agents and palos verdes brokers are committed to giving our clients specialized service and attention. For more information on Palos Verdes real estate, palos verdes homes for sale, palos verdes foreclosures, homes for sale in Palos Verdes, palos verdes market information in addition to quality information on homes for sale, visit www.pvbrokers.net .


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December Real Estate Update | Southern California | Palos Verdes Real Estate

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Southern California real estate continued its upward swing in December.  Historically low interest rates and inventory spurned home sales and experts believe that there is more to come in the first half of 2013.

The housing market in Southern California ended last year with sharp home-price gains and the highest sales for a December in three years.

“The housing market had more to offer in 2012 than many anticipated,” DataQuick President John Walsh said in a statement. “A lot of markets not only found a price bottom as foreclosures waned, but they started to see their first meaningful gains in nearly two years.”

The median home price in our region rose 19.6% in December over the same month last year to hit $323,000, the real estate firm  reported. A record level of cash buyers flooded into the market and more move-up homes also sold last month.

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The rise in the median, which is the point at which half the homes in the region sold for more and half for less, was essentially flat from the prior month, up only 0.6%. San Bernardino and Riverside counties posted the strongest year-over-year increases, up 20.0% and 19.1%,  respectively, indicating that the once hard-hit Inland Empire is now probably in recovery.

An estimated total of 20,274 new and previously owned homes and condominiums sold throughout the six-county region. That was a 5.1% increase from November and up 5.3% from December 2011. Last month’s tally was the highest for a December since 2009.

Last year was the first year of solid improvement since housing crashed in 2007. The strong performance last month indicates that 2013 will also continue to bring home price gains, analysts said.

The gains came as foreclosures declined, housing inventory plummeted, mortgage interest rates hit record lows and demand from investors spiked. The overhang of the last housing bust also resulted in some unexpected benefits.

For instance, the high number of underwater borrowers — or those homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth — actually served as a boost to the market rather than being a drag, as people kept their homes off the market, decreasing inventory.

“The lock-out phenomenon, combined with the rise in investors converting foreclosures intro rentals, lead to a lack of for-sale inventory,” CoreLogic economist Sam Khater wrote. “With home prices rising in 2012 and 2013, tight for-sale inventory will begin to ease.”

Nationally, CoreLogic reported that home prices were on a sharp upward trajectory in November, with almost all states posting gains that month. The firm’s home price index report, also released Tuesday, showed that home prices nationwide increased 7.4% year-over-year.

“Consistent price increases throughout 2012 have started the process of lifting households out of negative equity, which will support home sales and refinancing volumes,” Paul Diggle, an economist for Capital Economics, wrote in an emailed analysis. “Lower levels of negative equity is good news for housing market activity and sets up a virtuous circle of rising activity leading to rising prices and pushing negative equity down further.”

In California, buyers can anticipate little new inventory on the market. A supply of only about 2 1/2 months’ worth of single-family homes for sale was available statewide at the end of December, the California Assn. of Realtors reported Tuesday. A supply of six or seven months is considered healthy by most economists.

Supply from distressed sales, particularly from foreclosed homes, will remain tight as those homes are being quickly snapped up by investors even as the number of troubled borrowers entering foreclosure continues to decline. The number of notices of default — the first step in the formal foreclosure process — fell 14.5% in December from November and dropped 39.8% from December 2011, according to foreclosure tracker ForeclosureRadar.com. The decline in foreclosures has been aided by an increase in short sales, as The Times recently reported, as well as other loan modifications for borrowers. The drop in foreclosures should continue to help lift prices.

“For 2013, we largely expect more of the same,” Sean O’Toole, chief executive of ForeclosureRadar, wrote in a blog post this week. “Demand will remain strong thanks to Federal Reserve-manipulated low interest rates and affordability. Housing supply will remain constrained, largely due to government foreclosure intervention. As a result, prices will rise, though likely at a slower pace.”

The increase in the median home price is also being heavily influenced by the change in Southern California’s market dynamics as fewer sales are logged in cheaper neighborhoods and pricier places take off. Throughout Southern California, sales of mid-to-higher-cost markets rose in December, DataQuick reported. Sales of homes between $300,000 and $800,000, the typical move-up range, jumped 31.4% year-over-year. Sales of homes above $500,000 soared 40.0% year-over-year, while sales of homes of more than $800,000 were up 36.3%.

Meanwhile, cheaper neighborhoods posted weak sales. Most notably, the number of homes throughout the region that sold below $200,000 dropped 28.1% while those below $300,000 fell 18.2%.

Sales of foreclosed homes made up just 14.8% of the market last month, down from 15.4% the month before and 32.4% in December 2011. That compares with a high of 56.7% of the market in February 2009. Cash buyers and investors are also playing a big part in snapping up home inventory. Cash buyers bought up 33.8% of all resale homes last month, while absentee buyers purchased 29.1% of Southland homes in December, DataQuick said.

 

Palos Verdes Real Estate Update

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Home sales for Palos Verdes real estate single family homes in the first 20 days of December are higher than sales for the first 20 days of last month (27).  34 Palos Verdes houses have been reported as sold to date since December 1, 2012.   (It may take an additional week for some sales to post after the actual close of escrow).  The average sales price for single family Palos Verdes homes from December 1st to date is $1,296,197 which is down from last month’s average of $1,301,000.

For December 2012, the highest priced Palos Verdes homes sold for $3,325,000 in the Mira Catalina area of Rancho Palos Verdes; this private and gated estate has 6,551 square feet, 5 bedrooms and 6 baths. The semi-circular design allows 180 degree view of the Pacific from Orange County to Malibu. It features a gourmet kitchen, a sun room, a solarium, wine room, and separate guest quarters on a 26,103 square foot lot.  The lowest priced Palos Verdes home sold to date in December for $739,000 and is located in the Silver Spur neighborhood of Rancho Palos Verdes; this home has 1,395 square feet, 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on a 7,883 square foot lot.

Palos Verdes currently has 106 active single family Palos Verdes homes for sale priced between $550,900 in Rancho Palos Verdes and $12,500,000 also in the city of Rancho Palos Verdes (the low in Eastview is $649,900).

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Palos Verdes Real Estate For Sale | 5912 Mossbank Drive

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 5912 Mossbank Drive
Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275
Spectacular Views !!
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Priced at $1,249,000
Bedrooms 4 Bathrooms 3
Home Size 2,368 sq.ft. Garage 2
Lot Size 12 sq.ft. County Los Angeles
Property Type Single Family Home Year Built 1971
MLS Number PV13002371
Property Description
Impeccably maintained home with panoramic mountain, coastline and city light views. This four bedroom, 3 bath home on a quiet cul-de-sac street boasts a large-tiered backyard, lushly landscaped with a spectacular pond . The views from the upper deck will take your breath away. The kitchen opens into a large dining area and family room with cathedral ceilings where you can enjoy these incredible views. This split level home features a Master Suite with an additional bedroom on the main level and 2 more bedrooms downstairs. A truly unique view home, close to shopping and walking distance to award-winning Cornerstone Elementary.

 

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5912 Mossbank Drive, Rancho Palos Verdes

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